“The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson
With the goal to be an undeniable super power in the decades to come, Russia has:
A young pyramidal population.
Among the best healthcare and educational systems in the world.
A huge territory, rich in natural resources.
But Russia also suffers from serious limiting problems:
Early death in males (life expectancy: 65 years).
A low population density (with twice the area of the USA, it has half of its population).
Perception of international arrogance and bullishness
In summary, Russia does not have a population large enough to become the premier global economic power, nor the economy to generate the mightiest military force in the world. Even with such a wealth of touristic attractions and potential, it is overtaken by the like of Iceland and Dubai.
With a birth rate of 1.87 child per couple, Russia’s population is shrinking. It is projected to drop by ten million in 22 years. It needs an immigration policy that would attract young educated workers from all over the world, mostly Southeast Asia and sub-Sahara Africa. The intent would be to double its population by 2050, a condition that would double the economic output of the federation.
The cause of death in middle age males is alcoholism and tobacco addiction. Health education, detox program, and a four-time increase in the price of alcohol and tobacco should help. That is the way, the US dealt with the high death toll once caused by smoking.
Russia is in the higher bracket of the most corrupt countries in the world: 139/180. Example in point, a World Cup stadium that was supposed to cost 10 billion dollars ended up costing 47 billion dollars. Russia should tackle its corruption problem and sanitize its public life.
Finally, Russia should refrain from military adventurism, at least until it advances from being a regional power, to being an economic giant, with a diversified economy and a global reach. At its current status, challenging the US or the European Union for the sake of national approval rating is useless at best, and risky by all measures. It results in counterproductive international isolation.
Before acting as head honcho or international police, Russia should put its own house in order. The China model is not to be ignored.
(Odler Robert Jeanlouie, Saturday, June 30, 2018)
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